Revision of decarbonization and Energy targets: What kind of leadership will Japan need to meet the 1.5℃ target?

Director of Zeroboard Research Institute, Director of Global Sustainability Standards Board (GSSB)

Tomoo Machiba

At the end of this year, deliberations on Japan's targets for decarbonization, which will set the direction for Japan's decarbonization efforts toward net-zero emissions, came to a close. Over the past few months, the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, which will define Japan's future energy mix, and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which is required to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat every five years under the Paris Agreement, with the next ^one due in February 2025, have been under consideration in parallel.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets included in the next NDC, compiled by the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on December 24th of last year, are a 60% reduction by FY2035 and a 73% reduction by FY2040 compared to FY2013. In October 2020, then-Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide announced carbon neutrality by 2050, and in line with this, the current target of a 46% reduction by FY2030 compared to FY2013 was submitted to the United Nations as the NDC the following year. However, this figure simply draws a straight line toward net zero by 2050, meaning that the pace of decarbonization will not be accelerated in the future (Figure 1).

Figure 1. GHG emission amount performance and reduction target pathway for next NDC^*2)
(Source: Ministry of the Environment and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Japan's Basic Concepts and Directions for Net Zero by 2050," p. 3)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined that to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre- Industry levels, global GHG emission amount must be reduced by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels ^*3) . Converting this to Japan's target of 2013 levels would result in a 66% reduction by 2035, which would not be enough on the current linear path. Furthermore, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of private research institutes, has analyzed that in order to achieve the Paris Agreement, Japan would need to reduce emissions by 69% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels and 81% by 2035, and the current target falls far short of this ^*4) .

The UK, which recently achieved complete elimination of coal-fired power generation, announced at the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP29) a goal of reducing GHG emission amount by 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035 ^*5) . On December 19, the Biden administration in the US also announced a new target of reducing emissions by 61-66% compared to 2005 levels by 2035, although this is meaningless given the Trump administration's inauguration ^*6) . In the EU, the European Commission has recommended a 90% reduction compared to 1990 levels by 2040, and Japan's progress is lagging behind that of other developed countries. The government has emphasized that it remains "on track" toward its current reduction target, and if this is true, it could have set a direction that exceeds the current target.

The proposed energy mix targets for the new energy plan, approved at a December 25th METI expert panel, set a wide Contents for fiscal 2040: 40-50% renewable Energy , 30-40% thermal power, and approximately 20% nuclear power. The renewable energy targets are broken down as follows: solar 22-29%, wind 4-8%, hydroelectric 8-10%, geothermal 1-2%, and biomass 5-6%. The current Sixth Basic Plan's phrases "reducing dependence on nuclear power as much as possible" and "making renewable energy a top priority" have been removed, and instead, both nuclear and renewable energy will be "maximized." The plan is based on the assumption that fiscal 2040 electricity generation will increase by up to 20% from fiscal 2023 due to the construction of new data centers and semiconductor factories in line with the spread of AI. However, the percentages are not significantly different from the current 2030 targets of 41% thermal power, 36-38% renewable energy, and 20-22% nuclear power. Moreover, we are still far from the final agreement reached at COP28, which called for tripling renewable energy, doubling the rate of improvement in Energy efficiency, and moving away from fossil fuels.

On the other hand, the road to restarting and expanding nuclear power plants is a difficult one, and renewable energy relies on the development of future technologies such as perovskite solar cells and floating offshore wind power, while conserving thermal power relies on the use of hydrogen and ammonia, and carbon capture and storage (CCS), so even this goal may end up being nothing more than a pipe dream. In fact, nearly 70% of electricity generation currently relies on thermal power, which is a significant deviation from the current target (Figure 2). To begin with, the Energy Basic Plan has no binding power, and it is unclear who will be held accountable if the target is not achieved.

Figure 2. Changes in power source composition
*The Seventh Basic Energy Plan (2040) does not provide a breakdown of thermal power sources.
The proportion of each power source is expressed with a range, and the intermediate value is used in the figure.
(Source: Zero Board created based on the Energy"FY2023 Energy Supply and Demand Results ( Zeroboard Report)" ^*7) , " overview of the Basic Energy Plan" ( October 2021) ⁸⁾ , and "Basic Energy Plan ( Create )" ( December 2024) ^*9))

In particular, the way the deliberations were conducted this time was the target of criticism from civil society groups. After lengthy hearings on each technology and sector, the government's draft plan, which was prepared like a cooking show, was presented at the final stage, so it is no wonder that the deliberations are said to be nothing more than a ritual. The bottom-up approach may be in line with Japanese customs, but for urgent and global Issue such as climate change, I think it is essential to first decide the desired goal from the Top down, and then discuss and reach a consensus through backcasting on how to achieve it. In the EU, the European Commission's recommendations are based on the analysis of the European Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change (ESABCC), a third-party organization, and GHG emission reduction targets and NDCs are determined after discussions in the European Parliament and the European Council.

In the recent House of Representatives election, the "1.03 million yen barrier" dominated the conversation, with climate change and Energy Issue not even becoming points of contention. The NDC and Energy Basic Policy deliberations received some coverage in the newspapers, but as far as I could see, they were barely covered on television news programs. Seeing as how, for better or worse, in the West, climate change measures have become one of the biggest election issues, it's clear to see the gap between us and Japan.

The Industry sector's interest in and efforts towards decarbonization made great strides thanks to the bold decision made by former Prime Minister Kan four years ago, leading to the creation of the Zeroboard. The NDC and Energy Basic Plan will be approved by the Cabinet following a public comment period starting in the new year, but we hope once again that Prime Minister Ishiba and other politicians will demonstrate leadership. Comments can be submitted until January 26th, so we encourage everyone to participate ^*10) .

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＜Reference source＞

*1) Ministry of Foreign Affairs "Japan's Emission Reduction Targets" website: www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/ic/ch/page1w_000121.html

*2) Ministry of the Environment and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Japan's Basic Concepts and Directions for Net Zero by 2050," p. 3: zeroboard

*3) Ministry of the Environment, Global Environment Bureau, "overview of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Synthesis Report (SYR),"November 2024 edition: www.env.go.jp/content/000265060.pdf

*4) Climate Action Tracker, Japan webpage:UK：https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/

*5) UK Government, Prime Minister’s National Statement at COP29, 12 November 2024：www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-national-statement-at-cop29-12-november-2024

*6) The White House, President Biden's Historic Climate Agenda website：www.whitehouse.gov/climate

*7) Energy, "FY2023 Energy and Demand Results (Flash Report)": zeroboard

*8) " overview of the Basic Energy Plan" ( October 2021): zeroboard

*9) "Basic Energy Plan (Draft)" (December 2024): zeroboard

*10) overview of public comments: NDC: https://public-comment.e-gov.go.jp/pcm/detail?CLASSNAME=PCMMSTDETAIL&id=195240104
Basic Energy Plan: www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/opinion/2024_public.html