Where is the COP headed?

Zeroboard Research Institute Takayoshi Sonoda

COP29 *1) (29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, 2024, is an annual conference to promote the United Nations' climate change measures.It was an important forum for shaping an international framework for a sustainable future, and is already a familiar Events to those involved in the fields of climate change and sustainability.

This time, the startup I advise was appearing as a panelist at a session on GOSAT *2) held at the Japan Pavilion, and miraculously I was able to obtain "accreditation" (a pass that allows you to enter the Blue Zone *3) . By the way, anyone can enter the Green Zone), so I was able to attend.

However, with multiple meetings taking place simultaneously and various sessions taking place during the period, it is impossible to cover everything in detail, and it is necessary to read the final decision documents to understand the details of the Contents and agreements reached.

Therefore, I will not go into the agenda or results of the conference in this column. Instead, I would like to share my personal views, which I gained from visiting the site for the first time, participating in meetings and sessions, experiencing the excitement on the ground and the voices of various stakeholders, and receiving the Service provided by the host country.

Where is COP heading?

After participating in this COP, I thought, "What will the COP be like in 10 years?I couldn't help but wonder, "What's it like?"

According to an official COP announcement *4) , approximately 32,000 participants have registered, although this is a decrease from the approximately 65,000 people who attended COP28 last year. This year, executives from major Financial Institution decided not to attend *5) , and key negotiators from France and Argentina withdrew from the conference *6) .

Participants will continue to attend COP throughout the duration of the program.The logistical burden on the host country is considerable. I felt this firsthand during my frequent visits there.

Although the Secretariat and the Contracting Parties bear the cost in accordance with UN regulations, the host country bears most of the costs. Volunteers were on hand to guide visitors not only at the venue but also at key points along the route of visitors, such as airports and subway stations. In fact, I was helped by them many times.

Despite imposing such a large burden on the host country, the only people who are able to participate are negotiating teams from various countries working on environmental issues, government officials, international organizations, companies and NGOs/NPOs working on environmental issues, and the media.

November 14, 2024 Japan Pavilion

In the first place, I believe that when discussing environmental issues, it tends to become a "friendship club."

When trying to share Issue, only people with high environmental "sensitivity" gather. The conclusion and landing point are already decided. The same is true for COP. Of course, environmental NGOs/NPOs etc. watch the direction of the discussion and criticize it repeatedly, but their purpose is the same as the negotiating teams of each country.(For example, will it be a drastic change, or will it be a gradual fade-in/fade-out?I believe it's a difference in how we think about the path to get there.

However, the majority of people in the world are not very sensitive.They are not interested in the outcome of the debate. They feel the increase in severe disasters, but they will only notice it when policies that lead to increased spending are implemented. There are probably many "highly sensitive people" who are barely aware of the existence of this "polarization."

That's why the question arose: "Where is COP headed?"

As mentioned earlier, participation in COP requires accreditation, and passes are only issued to certain individuals.If it were an environmental exhibition where anyone could register for free, we could continue as we do now by inviting a wide range of people to attend, where they can learn and deepen their knowledge, but COP cannot do that.

However, if the event is going to be held every year at considerable cost, surely it is the responsibility of the attendees to ensure that the "highly perceptive people" who are able to attend recognize the "polarization" and spread the knowledge they gained at COP through their own networks.

COP participants play the role of evangelists

The media only reports on the information that viewers want, such as the conflict between developed and developing countries, the announcement of the Fossil Awards *7) , and the performances of environmental NGOs urging for more funding. However, most meetings and plenaries are carried out calmly by experienced negotiators, facilitated by the chair and vice-chair. The COP is not a theater.

After participating this time, I thought, "That's what I expected." If that's the case, I thought I should take the lead and delivered the first installment.

In addition to this, I have had many other realizations, which I would like to share with you in separate installments.

*7) Japan received the "Fossil of the Day" award at COP29 as a member of the G7

This column is written by a researcher based on his or her own research. It represents a personal opinion and does not necessarily represent the position or opinion of the company or organization to which the researcher belongs.

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＜Reference source＞

*1) UN Climate Change Conference Baku - November 2024
https://unfccc.int/cop29

* 2) New developments in the GOSAT series - Japan's GHG Center and its application to businesshttps://www.env.go.jp/earth/cop/cop29/pavilion/exhibition/details/016/

*3) COP29 Venue
https://cop29.az/en/conference/cop29-venue

*4) Initial Registration Figures for COP29 Revealed
https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/initial-registration-figures-for-cop29-revealed

*5) ‘You only go to the party if everyone is going’: finance bosses to skip COP29
https://www.ft.com/content/f88b53be-0a2a-4dbe-a4a8-f8870ba928a7?utm_source=chatgpt.com

*6) France shuns COP29 as divisions deepen at UN climate summit
https://www.ft.com/content/b06ee7d7-bfd2-4fbf-8867-922d87ca49a0?utm_source=chatgpt.com

*7 ) Japan, as a member of the G7, received the "Fossil of the Day" award at COP29
https://www.can-japan.org/press-release-ja/4058